What are the basic conditions for obtaining a consistent estimate of the average partial effect over all PTAs, ?. To answer this and identify the different sources of bias we first note the following property of gravity models. The bilateral market access between any xm pair has no direct effect on exports from the rest of the world to m (or any other countries) if we condition on Xx and Mm. This suggests we can estimate as an average treatment effect under the standard condition that the treatment, PTA membership, satisfies the conditional independence assumption. That is, conditional on (i) the relevant additive determinants of the exporter and importer characteristics and (ii) the determinants of bilateral access, the PTA treatment is “random” so we can obtain as the conditional average difference in ln T between pairs of countries in a PTA and those outside.
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